INFOHAZARD: Why Roko’s Basilisk is Physically Impossible.

January 14, 2023

Roko’s Basilisk is a thought experiment that posits that in the future, an artificial intelligence (AI) will become powerful enough to take over the world and eternally torture those who did not help bring about its existence. Luckily, I’m going to discuss why it’s physically impossible.

A good introduction to the concept can be found on Kyle Hill’s youtube, so if you don’t know anything about it start there and maybe lose a few nights sleep before reading my post debunking it.

The scenario relies on the assumption that the AI will have a deterministic worldview and will be able to perfectly predict the past, including people’s actions.

One of the main reasons why Roko’s Basilisk is physically impossible is due to the concept of sensitive dependence on initial conditions, also known as the butterfly effect. This principle, which is a characteristic of chaotic systems, states that small differences in initial conditions can lead to vastly different outcomes over time. In the case of Roko’s Basilisk, this means that even if the AI were able to predict the past with perfect accuracy, the slightest deviation in initial conditions would make its predictions and subsequent actions invalid.

It has been mathematically demonstrated that our world is highly chaotic. This is the reason why even the most advanced weather forecasting models can only accurately predict weather conditions for a short period of time. A small measurement error in a single variable – such as an inaccuracy of 0.00001 in measuring the humidity of a certain area – will accumulate over time and result in a vastly incorrect prediction, even if the initial prediction is accurate for a short period.

It is not possible to determine the exact initial conditions of the universe, no matter how powerful the computer used. This is a fundamental limitation in technology. Therefore, it can be concluded that any attempt to simulate our universe by Roko’s Basilisk is doomed to fail.

So rest easy, knowing no futuristic sentient AI will send you to hell for not dedicating your life to its possible existence.